{"basis":"leadership-spells-from-onchain-attestations","observedFrom":"2026-07-17T18:59:11.000Z","observedTo":"2026-08-11T13:00:09.000Z","observedDays":24.75,"attestationsInWindow":452,"perAsset":[{"asset":"USDC","attestations":290,"spells":174,"closedSpells":173,"medianLeadHours":2,"meanLeadHours":3.43,"longestClosedLeadHours":55.08,"survival":[{"atLeastHours":6,"rate":0.0925},{"atLeastHours":24,"rate":0.0231},{"atLeastHours":72,"rate":0}],"observationResolutionHours":1,"medianGapBps":48,"topSwitchPair":"compound <-> fluid","roundTripShare":0.4798,"leadStillOpen":false,"sampleWarning":"median lead (2h) is within twice the observation interval (1h) — shorter leads cannot be distinguished"},{"asset":"WETH","attestations":81,"spells":1,"closedSpells":0,"medianLeadHours":null,"meanLeadHours":null,"longestClosedLeadHours":null,"survival":[{"atLeastHours":6,"rate":null},{"atLeastHours":24,"rate":null},{"atLeastHours":72,"rate":null}],"observationResolutionHours":1,"medianGapBps":110,"topSwitchPair":null,"roundTripShare":null,"leadStillOpen":true,"sampleWarning":"no leadership change was observed in this window — the duration is a floor, not a measurement"},{"asset":"ETH_STAKING","attestations":81,"spells":11,"closedSpells":10,"medianLeadHours":26,"meanLeadHours":47.3,"longestClosedLeadHours":128,"survival":[{"atLeastHours":6,"rate":0.8},{"atLeastHours":24,"rate":0.7},{"atLeastHours":72,"rate":0.3}],"observationResolutionHours":1,"medianGapBps":6,"topSwitchPair":"frax-ether <-> lido","roundTripShare":0.5,"leadStillOpen":false,"sampleWarning":null}],"gapVsDuration":{"spearman":-0.0172,"n":183,"bands":[{"label":"0-24bps","minBps":0,"maxBps":25,"spells":68,"medianLeadHours":2},{"label":"25-99bps","minBps":25,"maxBps":100,"spells":62,"medianLeadHours":2},{"label":"100-299bps","minBps":100,"maxBps":300,"spells":39,"medianLeadHours":2},{"label":">=300bps","minBps":300,"maxBps":null,"spells":14,"medianLeadHours":2}],"discriminates":false,"note":"the size of the lead does NOT predict how long it lasts: a wide gap was no more durable than a narrow one. Do not use gap size as a proxy for reliability."},"reproduce":{"source":"https://base.easscan.org/graphql","schemaUid":"0xe74a27f6c216134a1a3aef4c26e29bd8866ac679a8023ddde34faa0bb05dd272","attester":"0x561143BFE9E2D975D92e915B8EfFEAa54119472a","note":"Query this schema and attester, group consecutive attestations by bestProtocol per asset, and every figure above follows. Nothing here depends on trusting this server."},"paidDetail":{"note":"Which protocol leads right now, how long it has already led, and the lead duration applied to MOVE/HOLD decisions are the paid part.","routes":["/persistence/eth-staking-yield","/persistence/usdc-base-yield","/persistence/weth-base-yield"]},"computedAt":"2026-08-11T13:36:28.149Z"}